Studies of Human Inference Using On-line Testing

NCT05848752 | Recruiting

• 1 other identifier: 21-0065
• Study Type: interventional
• Target: 1,000
• Locations: 1 country
• Sites: 1

Brief Summary

The investigators will record behavioral responses from human participants on crowdsourcing platform Prolific to identify the decision strategies humans apply short-term, long-term, and multi timescale (across both timescales) inference tasks. Participants will perform a Jar Switching Task (described in Research Strategy Aim 1- "Jar Switching Task") in which balls are drawn with replacement from one of two known jars. The current jar in use switches based on an underlying change rate across trials. Subjects must perform three task blocks: 1) report the current jar in use (short-term inference), 2) predict the subsequent jar (long-term inference), and 3) both report and predict the jars (multi-timescale inference). The investigators will record these responses, the number (and sequence) of balls drawn, and the response time (time from the end of trial until the response) for each trial. Subjects will perform all blocks (parameters and number of blocks to be determined by inference model development and testing prior to task development) so that we can compare responses at each timescale. Since participants participate voluntarily for small sums of money (around $10/ hour based on duration of task) and the investigators' previous studies have collected over 200 subjects in a matter of days, they will aim to record behavioral data from 1000 subjects. This number allows them to address the broad range of subject variability expected using Bayesian statistical methods such as Bayes factors.

Conditions

Behavior

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (1)

• Binary Behavioral Decision Responses

  Subject- provided choices (responses on the computer) between two presented options

  Through task completion on each task trial, approximately 1-5x/ minute for approximate 30 minutes

Study Arms (1)

Environmental Feature Experiment

EXPERIMENTAL

Behavioral: psychophysics

Interventions

psychophysics BEHAVIORAL

Subjects will be shown a pair of jars each filled with the same absolute number but different ratios of red/blue balls. Three blocks of trials exist, short-term inference (subjects must identify which of the equally likely jars is currently in use), long-term inference (subjects must predict the subsequent jar in use on the next trial, where jar switches are correlated across trials), or multi-timescale inference (subjects must both report the current jar and predict the subsequent jar, combining the short and longterm inferences). Subjects will draw balls as many balls as they wish with replacement (free response) during the short-term and multi-timescale blocks but will know the current jar in use for long-term inference.

Environmental Feature Experiment

Eligibility Criteria

• Age: 18 Years+
• Sex: all
• Healthy Volunteers: Yes
• Age Groups: Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)

You may qualify if:

• Adult Prolific participants who have a 95% approval rating and achieve a minimum score of 80% on our pre-test,
• Speak fluent English
• Are in the US.

You may not qualify if:

• None

Sponsors & Collaborators

• University of Colorado, Boulder: lead
• University of Pennsylvania: collaborator
• University of Houston: collaborator

Study Sites (1)

University of Colorado Boulder

Boulder, Colorado, 80309, United States

RECRUITING

MeSH Terms

Conditions

Behavior

Interventions

Psychophysics

Intervention Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Diagnostic Techniques and Procedures; Diagnosis; Behavioral Sciences; Behavioral Disciplines and Activities

Study Officials

• Tahra Eissa

  University of Colorado, Boulder

  PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR

Central Study Contacts

Tahra Eissa

CONTACT

(303) 492-6974; tahra.eissa@colorado.edu

Study Design

• Study Type: interventional
• Phase: not applicable
• Allocation: NA
• Masking: NONE
• Purpose: BASIC SCIENCE
• Intervention Model: SINGLE GROUP
• Sponsor Type: OTHER
• Responsible Party: PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
• PI Title: Research Associate

Study Record Dates

• First Submitted: April 19, 2023
• First Posted: May 8, 2023
• Study Start: February 15, 2025
• Primary Completion: November 1, 2025
• Study Completion: February 1, 2026
• Last Updated: July 20, 2025

Record last verified: 2025-07

Data Sharing

• IPD Sharing: Will share
• Shared Documents: STUDY PROTOCOL, ANALYTIC CODE
• Time Frame: The data will be made available following publication.
• Access Criteria: IPD will be available on OSF to all who are interested.

Locations

US (1)