Dementia Risk Prediction Model: Development and Validation

NCT03943641 | Completed

• 1 other identifier: AC19049
• Study Type: observational
• Target: 400,000
• Locations: 1 country
• Sites: 1

Brief Summary

At present, there is no treatment for dementia that changes the course of the disease. However, it is now understood that the proteins in dementias such as Alzheimer's disease are present years before someone develops symptoms of dementia. Studies may therefore need to give potential treatments to patients before they develop symptoms of dementia. To do this, researchers need a way of predicting who will go on to develop dementia in the future. There are several ways of doing this, however, many of these methods are costly and difficult to implement at a population level - such as brain imaging, lumbar punctures or psychological tests. In this study, the investigators aim to develop a method of predicting who will go on to develop dementia (and dementia due to Alzheimer's disease) using only the sort of information that a general practitioner would have available to them. To do this, the investigators will develop a dementia prediction model using data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, which contains anonymised primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data for the population of Wales, United Kingdom (UK). They will then go on to test how well it performs in an external dataset, such as the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

Conditions

Dementia Alzheimers

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (2)

• Dementia

  Development of dementia during follow-up

  10 years

• Alzheimer's disease

  Development of Alzheimer's disease dementia during follow-up

  10 years

Study Arms (1)

Population-based

Population-based cohort of participants registered with a SAIL-contributing practice.

Other: This is not an intervention study

Interventions

This is not an intervention study OTHER

This study is based on retrospective analysis of linked routinely-collected healthcare data

Population-based

Eligibility Criteria

• Age: 60 Years - 79 Years
• Sex: all
• Healthy Volunteers: Yes
• Age Groups: Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)
• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

We will use data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank Dementia electronic Cohort (SAIL-DeC). SAIL-DeC was created as a flexible, national electronic cohort ('e-cohort') to facilitate dementia research using routinely-collected healthcare data. SAIL participants were included in SAIL-DeC based on date of birth (1/1/1900 to 1/4/1958) and if linked primary care data were available (1.2 million individuals).

You may qualify if:

• Registered with a SAIL practice before 2008
• Aged between 60-79 during the study window (1st January 2008 to 31st December 2017)
• Aged 60-79 years by January 2008

You may not qualify if:

• Deprivation quintile missing for the start of follow-up (deprivation scores will probably not be missing at random)
• All-cause dementia code in any dataset prior to 1st January 2008 (i.e. dementia diagnosis at baseline)

Sponsors & Collaborators

• University of Edinburgh: lead
• Keele University: collaborator

Study Sites (1)

Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh

Edinburgh, Midlothian, United Kingdom

Location

MeSH Terms

Conditions

Alzheimer Disease

Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Dementia; Brain Diseases; Central Nervous System Diseases; Nervous System Diseases; Tauopathies; Neurodegenerative Diseases; Neurocognitive Disorders; Mental Disorders

Study Design

• Study Type: observational
• Observational Model: COHORT
• Time Perspective: RETROSPECTIVE
• Sponsor Type: OTHER
• Responsible Party: SPONSOR

Study Record Dates

• First Submitted: May 7, 2019
• First Posted: May 9, 2019
• Study Start: May 8, 2019
• Primary Completion: December 5, 2024
• Study Completion: December 5, 2024
• Last Updated: December 10, 2024

Record last verified: 2024-12

Data Sharing

• IPD Sharing: Will not share

Locations

GB (1)