Burn Mortality Prediction Scores

NCT07689890 | Completed

• 1 other identifier: GCH-BURN-SCORES-2026
• Study Type: observational
• Target: 1,082
• Locations: 1 country
• Sites: 1

Brief Summary

This retrospective observational cohort study evaluates hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026. The study aims to compare the ability of three burn severity scoring systems, the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, to predict in-hospital mortality. Electronic medical records were reviewed for demographic characteristics, burn-related variables, inhalation injury, burn depth, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, sepsis, surgical procedures, length of hospital stay, and survival status at hospital discharge. The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality. The predictive performance of the scoring systems will be evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis and logistic regression.

Conditions

Burn Injury; In-Hospital Mortality

Keywords

ABSI; Revised Baux score; Modified Ryan score; Burn mortality; In-hospital mortality; Prognostic score; Retrospective cohort; Total body surface area burned; Inhalation injury; ROC analysis

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (1)

• In-Hospital Mortality

  In-hospital mortality was defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization for burn injury. Mortality status was determined from electronic hospital records and was used as the primary outcome for evaluating the prognostic performance of burn severity scoring systems.

  From hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, assessed up to 240 days.

Secondary Outcomes (4)

• Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index

  Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.

• Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Revised Baux Score

  Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.

• Predictive Performance of the Modified Ryan Score

  Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.

• Association of Selected Clinical Factors With In-Hospital Mortality

  Clinical factors and mortality status were assessed from hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.

Study Arms (1)

Hospitalized Burn Admissions

Hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026 and included in the retrospective primary analysis cohort. Prognostic scores, including ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, were calculated from routinely recorded electronic medical data. No intervention was assigned by the study protocol.

Other: Retrospective Prognostic Score Assessment

Interventions

Retrospective Prognostic Score Assessment OTHER

ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score were retrospectively calculated using routinely collected electronic medical record data from hospitalized burn admissions. These scores were evaluated for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. No drug, device, procedure, or treatment intervention was assigned by the study protocol.

Also known as: ABSI, Revised Baux score, Modified Ryan score

Hospitalized Burn Admissions

Eligibility Criteria

• Sex: all
• Healthy Volunteers: No
• Age Groups: Child (0-17), Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)
• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

The study population consists of hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital, a tertiary referral burn center, between October 2023 and February 2026. The cohort includes burn admissions with documented in-hospital outcomes and sufficient electronic medical record data for calculation of ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score.

You may qualify if:

• Admissions with a documented in-hospital outcome of discharge alive or death. Admissions with available electronic medical records for age, sex, total body surface area burned, burn depth, inhalation injury, and core clinical variables.

You may not qualify if:

• Admissions in which treatment was refused. Admissions without sufficient electronic medical record data for calculation of the prognostic scores or assessment of the primary outcome.

Sponsors & Collaborators

• Gaziantep City Hospital: lead

Study Sites (1)

Gaziantep City Hospital Burn Center

Gaziantep, Gaziantep, 27470, Turkey (Türkiye)

Location

Related Publications (3)

• Ryan CM, Schoenfeld DA, Thorpe WP, Sheridan RL, Cassem EH, Tompkins RG. Objective estimates of the probability of death from burn injuries. N Engl J Med. 1998 Feb 5;338(6):362-6. doi: 10.1056/NEJM199802053380604.

  PMID: 9449729 BACKGROUND

• Osler T, Glance LG, Hosmer DW. Simplified estimates of the probability of death after burn injuries: extending and updating the baux score. J Trauma. 2010 Mar;68(3):690-7. doi: 10.1097/TA.0b013e3181c453b3.

  PMID: 20038856 BACKGROUND

• Tobiasen J, Hiebert JM, Edlich RF. The abbreviated burn severity index. Ann Emerg Med. 1982 May;11(5):260-2. doi: 10.1016/s0196-0644(82)80096-6. No abstract available.

  PMID: 7073049 BACKGROUND

MeSH Terms

Conditions

Burns

Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Wounds and Injuries

Study Officials

• Bekir Suat Kurkcuoglu

  Gaziantep City Hospital

  PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR

Study Design

• Study Type: observational
• Observational Model: COHORT
• Time Perspective: RETROSPECTIVE
• Sponsor Type: OTHER
• Responsible Party: SPONSOR

Study Record Dates

• First Submitted: June 22, 2026
• First Posted: July 8, 2026
• Study Start: October 7, 2023
• Primary Completion: February 28, 2026
• Study Completion: February 28, 2026
• Last Updated: July 8, 2026

Record last verified: 2026-06

Data Sharing

• IPD Sharing: Will not share

Locations

TU (1)