Validation of Heart Failure Risk Scores MAGGIC, GWTG-HF, and SHFM in Egyptian Patients

NCT07194889 | Not Yet Recruiting

• 1 other identifier: Validation of HF risk scores
• Study Type: observational
• Target: 140
• Locations: 0 countries
• Sites: N/A

Brief Summary

Heart failure (HF) affects over 64 million people worldwide and carries high morbidity, frequent hospitalizations, and major economic burden. Accurate risk stratification is essential to guide therapy, follow-up, and advanced care decisions. Several prognostic models have been developed: MAGGIC: based on \>39,000 patients, predicts mortality from simple clinical variables. GWTG-HF: derived from \>30,000 patients, predicts in-hospital mortality using admission data. SHFM: estimates 1-3 year survival, incorporating clinical, lab, and treatment factors. These models, developed mainly in Western cohorts, may not perform well in Arab populations, where HF patients are younger, with more ischemic disease, diabetes, CKD, and limited access to advanced therapies. Such differences risk score miscalibration. External validation and recalibration are needed to assess predictive accuracy and adjust models for local populations. A head-to-head comparison of MAGGIC, GWTG-HF, and SHFM has never been done in Egypt; such a study would identify the most reliable model for predicting 1-year mortality and 30-day readmission in Egyptian HF patients.

Conditions

Heart Failure

Keywords

Heart failure; Risk Models; Validation and Recalibration; Egyptian patients

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (1)

• Validation and Recalibration

  * To externally validate the MAGGIC, GWTG-HF, and SHFM models for predicting all-cause mortality at 1 year in Egyptian HF patients. * To validate the same models for predicting 30-day all-cause readmission * In-hospital mortality (for GWTG-HF validation). * All-cause mortality at 30 days and 1 year (for MAGGIC \& SHFM).

  1 year

Eligibility Criteria

• Age: 18 Years+
• Sex: all
• Healthy Volunteers: No
• Age Groups: Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)
• Sampling Method: Probability Sample

Study Population

Egyptian patients with heart failure

You may qualify if:

• Age ≥18 years.
• Clinical HF diagnosis (per ESC/ACC/AHA criteria).
• Available baseline data to compute ≥1 of the three scores within 24h of index assessment (admission or clinic baseline).
• For longitudinal endpoints: reachable for follow-up.

You may not qualify if:

• Cardiogenic shock requiring immediate MCS at presentation (analyzed separately).
• Isolated right HF from primary pulmonary disease without LV involvement (for main analysis

Sponsors & Collaborators

• Assiut University: lead

Related Publications (13)

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  PMID: 23095984 BACKGROUND

• Aaronson KD, Schwartz JS, Chen TM, Wong KL, Goin JE, Mancini DM. Development and prospective validation of a clinical index to predict survival in ambulatory patients referred for cardiac transplant evaluation. Circulation. 1997 Jun 17;95(12):2660-7. doi: 10.1161/01.cir.95.12.2660.

  PMID: 9193435 BACKGROUND

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  PMID: 16534009 BACKGROUND

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  PMID: 20123668 BACKGROUND

• Sawano M, Shiraishi Y, Kohsaka S, Nagai T, Goda A, Mizuno A, Sujino Y, Nagatomo Y, Kohno T, Anzai T, Fukuda K, Yoshikawa T. Performance of the MAGGIC heart failure risk score and its modification with the addition of discharge natriuretic peptides. ESC Heart Fail. 2018 Aug;5(4):610-619. doi: 10.1002/ehf2.12278. Epub 2018 Mar 9.

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  PMID: 32483830 BACKGROUND

MeSH Terms

Conditions

Heart Failure

Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Heart Diseases; Cardiovascular Diseases

Study Design

• Study Type: observational
• Observational Model: COHORT
• Time Perspective: PROSPECTIVE
• Target Duration: 1 Year
• Sponsor Type: OTHER
• Responsible Party: PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
• PI Title: Resident doctor

Study Record Dates

• First Submitted: September 19, 2025
• First Posted: September 26, 2025
• Study Start: October 1, 2025
• Primary Completion (Estimated): October 1, 2026
• Study Completion (Estimated): October 1, 2027
• Last Updated: October 1, 2025

Record last verified: 2025-09