External Validation of Ten Prediction Models for 30-day Mortality Following Hip Fracture

NCT06961253 | Active Not Recruiting

• 1 other identifier: WO 24.013
• Study Type: observational
• Target: 3,500
• Locations: 1 country
• Sites: 1

Brief Summary

This study aims to externally validate ten existing prediction models with a low risk of bias for 30-day mortality following hip fracture. Data will be collected from the Dutch Hip Fracture Audit (DHFA) and supplemented with structured and unstructured data extracted through text mining using CTcue. Approximately 35 clinical variables will be used, including factors consistently associated with short-term mortality. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality within 30 days after hip fracture. Predictive performance will be assessed through discrimination (AUC), explained variance (R²), and calibration analysis. Clinical usefulness will be evaluated using Net Benefit and Decision Curve Analysis. This study seeks to identify models with strong predictive performance and practical applicability to support shared decision-making between clinicians and patients.

Conditions

Hip Fracture; Hip Fracture Surgeries

Keywords

hip fracture; hip surgery; mortality; prediction models

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (1)

• 30-day mortality

  Occurrence of death from any cause within 30 days following hip fracture diagnosis or hospital admission. Mortality status (yes/no) will be determined based on hospital records and confirmed via the Dutch national population registry (Basisregistratie Personen, BRP).

  30 days post-fracture

Secondary Outcomes (1)

• Discriminative Ability (AUC)

  30 days post-fracture

Other Outcomes (4)

• Explained Variance (R²)

  30 days post-fracture

• Calibration

  30 days post-fracture

• Comparison of Model Discrimination (DeLong Test)

  30 days post-fracture

Eligibility Criteria

• Age: 18 Years+
• Sex: all
• Healthy Volunteers: Yes
• Age Groups: Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)
• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

The study population consists of patients who underwent surgery for a hip fracture at OLVG between January 1, 2016, and June 6, 2024, including procedures with hemiarthroplasty or internal fixation. The average age of the study population is approximately 80 years. The cohort is inclusive due to the broad inclusion and minimal exclusion criteria, and data collection is based on an anonymous search strategy. This real-world population includes individuals who might not typically participate in randomized clinical trials, enhancing the generalizability of the results. In addition, the study identifies patients admitted with a hip fracture who did not undergo surgery during the same period, allowing for a comparison of demographic and clinical characteristics between operated and non-operated patients.

You may qualify if:

• Patients admitted to OLVG between January 1, 2016, and March 1, 2024, with a diagnosis of hip fracture; and/or.
• Patients who underwent surgery at OLVG between January 1, 2016, and March 1, 2024, with an indication of hip fracture; and.
• Availability of independent predictor variables for at least one of the selected prediction models in the medical record.

You may not qualify if:

• Patients with unknown 30-day follow-up mortality status.
• Patients with periprosthetic fractures (fractures around an existing hip prosthesis) at the time of presentation.
• Patients aged under 18 years at the time of hip fracture.
• Patients who declined the use of their medical data for research purposes.

Sponsors & Collaborators

• JointResearch: lead

Study Sites (1)

OLVG

Amsterdam, 1091AC, Netherlands

Location

MeSH Terms

Conditions

Hip Fractures

Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Femoral Fractures; Fractures, Bone; Wounds and Injuries; Hip Injuries; Leg Injuries

Study Officials

• Diederik H.R. Kempen, Dr.

  OLVG

  PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR

Study Design

• Study Type: observational
• Observational Model: COHORT
• Time Perspective: RETROSPECTIVE
• Sponsor Type: OTHER
• Responsible Party: SPONSOR

Study Record Dates

• First Submitted: April 29, 2025
• First Posted: May 7, 2025
• Study Start: June 1, 2024
• Primary Completion: December 31, 2025
• Study Completion: June 1, 2026
• Last Updated: November 17, 2025

Record last verified: 2025-04

Data Sharing

• IPD Sharing: Will not share

Locations

NL (1)