Predicting Heart Failure Outcomes With Biomarkers and Imaging

NCT07332520 | Completed DMC

• 2 other identifiers: HF_Prognosis_2025K202511-03
• Study Type: observational
• Target: 4,000
• Locations: 0 countries
• Sites: N/A

Brief Summary

This study aims to develop a better model to predict one-year risk of death in patients with heart failure. We will test whether combining information from routine blood tests (like NT-proBNP) and heart scans (measuring features like epicardial fat density) improves risk prediction compared to using either type of data alone. This is a retrospective study using existing medical records of patients treated for chronic heart failure at Xinjiang Medical University First Affiliated Hospital between 2012 and 2024. No new patient contact or interventions are involved. The goal is to enable more accurate, personalized risk assessment across different types of heart failure (HFrEF, HFmrEF, HFpEF).

Conditions

Heart Failure; Heart Failure, Systolic; Heart Failure, Diastolic; Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF); Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFPEF); Heart Failure With Mid-Range Ejection Fraction (HFmrEF)

Keywords

Heart failure prognosis; Biomarkers; NT-proBNP; Medical imaging; Echocardiography; Computed tomography; Epicardial adipose tissue; Global longitudinal strain; Risk prediction model; Retrospective cohort study; HFpEF; HFrEF; Phenotype; All-cause mortality

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (1)

• All-cause mortality

  Occurrence of death from any cause within one year (365 days) from the index date. The index date is defined as the date of the first qualifying encounter that meets all inclusion criteria.

  1 year

Secondary Outcomes (5)

• Phenotype-specific prognostic performance

  1 year

• Independent prognostic value of EAT density in HFpEF

  1 year

• Occurrence of HFimpEF

  Through study completion,up to 13 years.

• Association between baseline NT-proBNP level and HFimpEF

  Through study completion, up to 13 years.

• Association between baseline EAT density and HFimpEF

  Through study completion, up to 13 years.

Study Arms (1)

Heart Failure Cohort

Adult patients (≥18 years) with a confirmed diagnosis of chronic heart failure who had both qualifying blood biomarker assessment and cardiac imaging performed within a specified window at the study center between 2012 and 2024. This is an observational cohort. No specific intervention is administered or withheld as part of the research protocol.

Eligibility Criteria

• Age: 18 Years+
• Sex: all
• Healthy Volunteers: No
• Age Groups: Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)
• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Adults diagnosed with chronic heart failure at the study center between 2012 and 2024.

You may qualify if:

• Age ≥ 18 years.
• Confirmed diagnosis of chronic heart failure.
• Treated at the study center between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2024.
• Availability of both qualifying blood biomarker test results (NT-proBNP and/or high-sensitivity cardiac troponin) and cardiac imaging (echocardiography and/or cardiac CT) performed within a ±3-month window around the index encounter.

You may not qualify if:

• Heart failure primarily due to severe primary valvular disease, acute myocardial infarction, myocarditis, or pulmonary embolism.
• End-stage renal disease requiring dialysis.
• Clinical records or follow-up data are severely incomplete, precluding outcome assessment.

Sponsors & Collaborators

• Xinjiang Medical University: lead

MeSH Terms

Conditions

Heart Failure; Heart Failure, Systolic; Heart Failure, Diastolic

Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Heart Diseases; Cardiovascular Diseases

Study Officials

• Xiang Xie, PhD

  First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University

  STUDY CHAIR

Study Design

• Study Type: observational
• Observational Model: COHORT
• Time Perspective: RETROSPECTIVE
• Sponsor Type: OTHER
• Responsible Party: PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
• PI Title: Professor

Study Record Dates

• First Submitted: December 28, 2025
• First Posted: January 12, 2026
• Study Start: January 1, 2012
• Primary Completion: December 31, 2024
• Study Completion: January 31, 2025
• Last Updated: January 27, 2026

Record last verified: 2026-01

Data Sharing

• IPD Sharing: Will not share