Improving Disease Prevention Strategies by Integrating Socio-spatial Characterization of Human Mobility

NCT06599970 | Active Not Recruiting

• 1 other identifier: 756227
• Study Type: observational
• Target: 810
• Locations: 1 country
• Sites: 1

Brief Summary

In contrast to the trend expected based on existing prediction models, dengue incidence was historically low during the pandemic mobility restrictions of 2020-2021 in most dengue endemic countries. This highlights that current transmission models do not correctly take human mobility into account. Within a pilot-study in Cienfuegos, South-Central Cuba, we will characterise the epidemiological spread and distribution of dengue outbreaks (2012-2025) in districts repeatedly involved in previous dengue outbreaks as initiating, case-concentrating or transmission sustaining areas. This will be linked with fine-grained mobility data and socio-spatial characterizations of commuting flows and population hubs where people are concentrated during day-time (time when transmission happens). This information, together with entomological and environmental risk-data, will be used to i) improve the accuracy of mathematical dengue models, ii) better understand the transmission process and iii) inform and improve the design of disease control strategies. The project will contribute to much-needed evidence-based guidance for public health actors on improved prevention strategies of epidemics dispersion and where and when to implement control measures.

Conditions

Dengue; Arbovirus Infections; Epidemic Disease; Behavior, Health

Keywords

human mobility; transmission modelling; socio-spatial characterization

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (2)

• dengue incidence

  multilevel spatio-temporal characterization of dengue transmission dynamics, focussing on transmission propagation heterogeneity in time and space

  2012-2025

• human mobility

  origen-destination matrices will be built, based on information collected in mobility survey, school and workplace registries, vacation stories, phone data, student survey and in-depth interviews

  2024-2026

Secondary Outcomes (4)

• entomological risks for dengue transmission

  2012-2025

• climate

  2012-2026

• Mathematical transmission model

  2024-2026

• socio-spatial characterisation of public spaces

  2024-2026

Interventions

No intervention OTHER

This is an observational study. No experimental interventions included. The mobility of people will be studied.

Eligibility Criteria

• Age: 19 Years - 75 Years
• Sex: all
• Healthy Volunteers: Yes
• Age Groups: Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)
• Sampling Method: Probability Sample

Study Population

Research will take place in Cienfuegos municipality, Cuba, with a population of 178 776 inhabitants. For the epidemiological and entomological data, routine surveillance info will be used, which covers the entire municipality. For mobility patterns characterisation, for example the mobility survey: we selected (based on epidemiological patterns) 5 sentinel Popular Councils. Within each, 4 consultorios and their area of coverage were selected. In the consultorium exists a health registry, a list of all persons in the consultorium catchment area. Participants will be selected from the health registry by a random process using the RANDBETWEEN function in Microsoft Excel, within a range of 1 to upper limit equal to the total number of patients in the registry.

You may qualify if:

• Being a resident of the sentinel Popular Council/consultorio
• Being \>= 19 years of age
• Being willing and able to provide written informed consent

You may not qualify if:

• being below 19 or above 75 years old

Sponsors & Collaborators

• Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium: lead
• Cienfuegos Provincial Ministry of Health, Cuba: collaborator
• University Ghent: collaborator
• Institute Pedro Kouri, Ministry of Public Health (Cuba): collaborator

Study Sites (1)

Instituto de Medicina Tropical Pedro Kouri

Havana, La Habana, Cuba

Location

MeSH Terms

Conditions

Dengue; Arbovirus Infections; Health Behavior

Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Mosquito-Borne Diseases; Vector Borne Diseases; Infections; Virus Diseases; Flavivirus Infections; Flaviviridae Infections; RNA Virus Infections; Hemorrhagic Fevers, Viral; Behavior

Study Officials

• Veerle Vanlerberghe

  Institute of Tropical Medicine

  STUDY DIRECTOR

Study Design

• Study Type: observational
• Observational Model: ECOLOGIC OR COMMUNITY
• Time Perspective: OTHER
• Sponsor Type: OTHER
• Responsible Party: SPONSOR

Study Record Dates

• First Submitted: August 19, 2024
• First Posted: September 19, 2024
• Study Start: June 1, 2024
• Primary Completion (Estimated): December 31, 2026
• Study Completion (Estimated): June 30, 2027
• Last Updated: April 22, 2026

Record last verified: 2026-04

Locations

CU (1)