NCT04460274

Brief Summary

Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of time-series analysis.

Trial Health

87
On Track

Trial Health Score

Automated assessment based on enrollment pace, timeline, and geographic reach

Enrollment
7,882,471

participants targeted

Target at P75+ for all trials

Timeline
Completed

Started Dec 2019

Shorter than P25 for all trials

Geographic Reach
1 country

1 active site

Status
completed

Health score is calculated from publicly available data and should be used for screening purposes only.

Trial Relationships

Click on a node to explore related trials.

Study Timeline

Key milestones and dates

Study Start

First participant enrolled

December 31, 2019

Completed
6 months until next milestone

Primary Completion

Last participant's last visit for primary outcome

June 15, 2020

Completed
5 days until next milestone

Study Completion

Last participant's last visit for all outcomes

June 20, 2020

Completed
13 days until next milestone

First Submitted

Initial submission to the registry

July 3, 2020

Completed
4 days until next milestone

First Posted

Study publicly available on registry

July 7, 2020

Completed
Last Updated

July 8, 2020

Status Verified

July 1, 2020

Enrollment Period

6 months

First QC Date

July 3, 2020

Last Update Submit

July 6, 2020

Conditions

Covid-19

Keywords

Covid19, forecasting

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (1)

  • Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19

    December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020

Study Arms (2)

Model Building

Number of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm.

Other: Model Building

Model Validation

Number of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model

Other: Model validation

Interventions

Model BuildingOTHER

Model building

Model Building
Model validationOTHER

Model validation

Model Validation

Eligibility Criteria

Sexall
Healthy VolunteersNo
Age GroupsChild (0-17), Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)
Sampling MethodNon-Probability Sample
Study Population

Population consists all confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported from Situation Dashboard of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control website Coronavirus 19 Situation Report

You may qualify if:

  • Confirmed case of Covid-19

You may not qualify if:

  • Cases not reported

Contact the study team to confirm eligibility.

Sponsors & Collaborators

Study Sites (1)

Republic of Turkey, Health Sciences University, Izmir Bozyaka Education and Training Hospital

Izmir, 35360, Turkey (Türkiye)

Location

MeSH Terms

Conditions

COVID-19

Interventions

Boosting Machine Learning Algorithms

Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Pneumonia, ViralPneumoniaRespiratory Tract InfectionsInfectionsVirus DiseasesCoronavirus InfectionsCoronaviridae InfectionsNidovirales InfectionsRNA Virus InfectionsLung DiseasesRespiratory Tract Diseases

Intervention Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Ensemble LearningMachine LearningArtificial IntelligenceAlgorithmsMathematical Concepts

Study Design

Study Type
observational
Observational Model
COHORT
Time Perspective
RETROSPECTIVE
Sponsor Type
OTHER GOV
Responsible Party
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
PI Title
Principal Investigator

Study Record Dates

First Submitted

July 3, 2020

First Posted

July 7, 2020

Study Start

December 31, 2019

Primary Completion

June 15, 2020

Study Completion

June 20, 2020

Last Updated

July 8, 2020

Record last verified: 2020-07

Locations

TU(1)