Climate Change Trends and Their Impact on the Seasonal Upper Respiratory Tract Disease Burden

NCT07767019 | Not Yet Recruiting

• 1 other identifier: 0076-26-BRZ
• Study Type: observational
• Target: 5,000
• Locations: 1 country
• Sites: 1

Brief Summary

Investigators assume that global climate changes can influence upper respiratory tract infection peak prevalence, which may have significant clinical implication, for example, by adjusting seasonal Influenzas' vaccine timing. Therefore, the investigators will collect data from electronic medical database about patients tested positive for winter seasonal respiratory tract viruses from 2022 and compare the incidence to the meteorological profile of that season.

Conditions

Upper Resp Tract Infection

Keywords

URTI; Influenza; RSV; Climate change

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (1)

• Incidence

  Examining the incidence of severe upper respiratory tract illness (requiring hospital visits) in relation to weather changes over the last four seasons.

  4 winter seasons, from 2022 to 2026.

Secondary Outcomes (3)

• Morbidity

  4 winter seasons, 2022 to 2026.

• Mortality

  4 winter seasons 2022-2026

• recurrence

  4 winter seasons, 2022-2026

Study Arms (1)

URTI infection

Patients with a positive RV7 sample

Other: No Intervention: Observational Cohort

Interventions

No Intervention: Observational Cohort OTHER

No intervention, observational retrospective study.

URTI infection

Eligibility Criteria

• Sex: all
• Healthy Volunteers: No
• Age Groups: Child (0-17), Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)
• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

All patients with a positive nasopharyngeal swab for a respiratory virus - Influenza, RSV, Para-Influenza, Human MetaPneumoVirus, Rhinovirus.

You may qualify if:

• All patient with a positive nasopharyngeal swab for a respiratory virus

You may not qualify if:

• No medical record available

Sponsors & Collaborators

• Barzilai Medical Center: lead

Study Sites (1)

Barzilai Medical Center

Ashkelon, Israel

Location

Related Publications (10)

• Roussel M, Pontier D, Cohen JM, Lina B, Fouchet D. Quantifying the role of weather on seasonal influenza. BMC Public Health. 2016 May 26;16:441. doi: 10.1186/s12889-016-3114-x.

  PMID: 27230111 BACKGROUND

• Sloan C, Moore ML, Hartert T. Impact of pollution, climate, and sociodemographic factors on spatiotemporal dynamics of seasonal respiratory viruses. Clin Transl Sci. 2011 Feb;4(1):48-54. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-8062.2010.00257.x.

  PMID: 21348956 BACKGROUND

• Zhang S, Chen C, Wang R, Liu L, Wang X, Zhang X. Influence and lagged effects of weather and air pollution on pediatric RSV-ALRI in Shenyang, NE China. Respir Med. 2026 Apr;254:108711. doi: 10.1016/j.rmed.2026.108711. Epub 2026 Feb 13.

  PMID: 41690416 BACKGROUND

• Yan ZL, Liu WH, Long YX, Ming BW, Yang Z, Qin PZ, Ou CQ, Li L. Effects of meteorological factors on influenza transmissibility by virus type/subtype. BMC Public Health. 2024 Feb 16;24(1):494. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-17961-9.

  PMID: 38365650 BACKGROUND

• Qi L, Liu T, Gao Y, Li Q, Tang W, Tian D, Su K, Xiong Y, Yang J, Feng L, Liu Q. Effect of absolute humidity on influenza activity across different climate regions in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jul;29(32):49373-49384. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19279-8. Epub 2022 Feb 26.

  PMID: 35218485 BACKGROUND

• Singh DE, Marinescu MC, Carretero J, Delgado-Sanz C, Gomez-Barroso D, Larrauri A. Evaluating the impact of the weather conditions on the influenza propagation. BMC Infect Dis. 2020 Apr 5;20(1):265. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-04977-w.

  PMID: 32248792 BACKGROUND

• Moriyama M, Hugentobler WJ, Iwasaki A. Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections. Annu Rev Virol. 2020 Sep 29;7(1):83-101. doi: 10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445. Epub 2020 Mar 20.

  PMID: 32196426 BACKGROUND

• Huang X, Mengersen K, Milinovich G, Hu W. Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis. J Infect Dis. 2017 Jun 1;215(11):1695-1701. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jix181.

  PMID: 28407143 BACKGROUND

• Saino N, Ambrosini R, Rubolini D, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A, Huppop K, Huppop O, Lehikoinen A, Lehikoinen E, Rainio K, Romano M, Sokolov L. Climate warming, ecological mismatch at arrival and population decline in migratory birds. Proc Biol Sci. 2011 Mar 22;278(1707):835-42. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2010.1778. Epub 2010 Sep 22.

  PMID: 20861045 BACKGROUND

• Kilpatrick AM, Chmura AA, Gibbons DW, Fleischer RC, Marra PP, Daszak P. Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Dec 19;103(51):19368-73. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0609227103. Epub 2006 Dec 7.

  PMID: 17158217 BACKGROUND

MeSH Terms

Conditions

Respiratory Tract Infections; Influenza, Human

Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Infections; Respiratory Tract Diseases; Orthomyxoviridae Infections; RNA Virus Infections; Virus Diseases

Study Officials

• Daniel Leshin Carmel, MD

  Barzilai Medical Center

  PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR

Central Study Contacts

Daniel leshin Carmel Head of Infection Control and Prevention, MD

CONTACT

+972525253037; danielles@bmc.gov.il

Pnina Nir Study Coordinator

CONTACT

pninan@bmc.gov.il

Study Design

• Study Type: observational
• Observational Model: CASE ONLY
• Time Perspective: RETROSPECTIVE
• Sponsor Type: OTHER
• Responsible Party: PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
• PI Title: Head of Infection Control and Prevention Unit

Study Record Dates

• First Submitted: August 10, 2026
• First Posted: August 17, 2026
• Study Start: August 15, 2026
• Primary Completion (Estimated): January 1, 2027
• Study Completion (Estimated): January 31, 2027
• Last Updated: August 17, 2026

Record last verified: 2026-08

Data Sharing

• IPD Sharing: Will not share

Locations

IL (1)