NCT06457035

Brief Summary

A majority of patients with Crohn's disease undergo surgery during the disease course. We aimed to develop an easily available nomogram to predict the risk of surgery at diagnosis.

Trial Health

100
On Track

Trial Health Score

Automated assessment based on enrollment pace, timeline, and geographic reach

Enrollment
490

participants targeted

Target at P75+ for all trials

Timeline
Completed

Started Jan 2005

Longer than P75 for all trials

Status
completed

Health score is calculated from publicly available data and should be used for screening purposes only.

Trial Relationships

Click on a node to explore related trials.

Study Timeline

Key milestones and dates

Study Start

First participant enrolled

January 1, 2005

Completed
18 years until next milestone

Primary Completion

Last participant's last visit for primary outcome

December 31, 2022

Completed
11 months until next milestone

Study Completion

Last participant's last visit for all outcomes

December 1, 2023

Completed
6 months until next milestone

First Submitted

Initial submission to the registry

June 8, 2024

Completed
5 days until next milestone

First Posted

Study publicly available on registry

June 13, 2024

Completed
Last Updated

June 13, 2024

Status Verified

June 1, 2024

Enrollment Period

18 years

First QC Date

June 8, 2024

Last Update Submit

June 12, 2024

Conditions

Keywords

Crohn's diseasesurgerynomogramprediction model

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcomes (1)

  • Requirement of surgery

    need for bowel resection at any time

    Any time during the follow-up (up to Dec 31, 2022)

Interventions

No intervention was performed in this retrospective cohort study.

Also known as: biologics

Eligibility Criteria

Sexall
Healthy VolunteersNo
Age GroupsChild (0-17), Adult (18-64), Older Adult (65+)
Sampling MethodNon-Probability Sample
Study Population

patients newly diagnosed with Crohn's disease

You may qualify if:

  • The diagnosis of CD was finally confirmed according to diagnostic criteria, including clinical manifestations and ileocolonoscopic, histopathologic, and radiologic evidence
  • Laboratory data of complete blood count and routine blood biochemical examination were available within one week before the diagnostic ileocolonoscopy

You may not qualify if:

  • The time of diagnosis was unclear
  • They underwent bowel resection within three months after diagnosis, which reflected an early complicated disease
  • They suffered from severe infection around the laboratory test

Contact the study team to confirm eligibility.

Sponsors & Collaborators

Related Publications (16)

  • Roda G, Chien Ng S, Kotze PG, Argollo M, Panaccione R, Spinelli A, Kaser A, Peyrin-Biroulet L, Danese S. Crohn's disease. Nat Rev Dis Primers. 2020 Apr 2;6(1):22. doi: 10.1038/s41572-020-0156-2.

    PMID: 32242028BACKGROUND
  • Satsangi J, Silverberg MS, Vermeire S, Colombel JF. The Montreal classification of inflammatory bowel disease: controversies, consensus, and implications. Gut. 2006 Jun;55(6):749-53. doi: 10.1136/gut.2005.082909.

    PMID: 16698746BACKGROUND
  • Thia KT, Sandborn WJ, Harmsen WS, Zinsmeister AR, Loftus EV Jr. Risk factors associated with progression to intestinal complications of Crohn's disease in a population-based cohort. Gastroenterology. 2010 Oct;139(4):1147-55. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2010.06.070. Epub 2010 Jul 14.

    PMID: 20637205BACKGROUND
  • Tarrant KM, Barclay ML, Frampton CM, Gearry RB. Perianal disease predicts changes in Crohn's disease phenotype-results of a population-based study of inflammatory bowel disease phenotype. Am J Gastroenterol. 2008 Dec;103(12):3082-93. doi: 10.1111/j.1572-0241.2008.02212.x.

    PMID: 19086959BACKGROUND
  • Louis E, Collard A, Oger AF, Degroote E, Aboul Nasr El Yafi FA, Belaiche J. Behaviour of Crohn's disease according to the Vienna classification: changing pattern over the course of the disease. Gut. 2001 Dec;49(6):777-82. doi: 10.1136/gut.49.6.777.

    PMID: 11709511BACKGROUND
  • Peyrin-Biroulet L, Loftus EV Jr, Colombel JF, Sandborn WJ. The natural history of adult Crohn's disease in population-based cohorts. Am J Gastroenterol. 2010 Feb;105(2):289-97. doi: 10.1038/ajg.2009.579. Epub 2009 Oct 27.

    PMID: 19861953BACKGROUND
  • Bemelman WA, Warusavitarne J, Sampietro GM, Serclova Z, Zmora O, Luglio G, de Buck van Overstraeten A, Burke JP, Buskens CJ, Colombo F, Dias JA, Eliakim R, Elosua T, Gecim IE, Kolacek S, Kierkus J, Kolho KL, Lefevre JH, Millan M, Panis Y, Pinkney T, Russell RK, Shwaartz C, Vaizey C, Yassin N, D'Hoore A. ECCO-ESCP Consensus on Surgery for Crohn's Disease. J Crohns Colitis. 2018 Jan 5;12(1):1-16. doi: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjx061. No abstract available.

    PMID: 28498901BACKGROUND
  • Cushing K, Higgins PDR. Management of Crohn Disease: A Review. JAMA. 2021 Jan 5;325(1):69-80. doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.18936.

    PMID: 33399844BACKGROUND
  • Peyrin-Biroulet L, Oussalah A, Williet N, Pillot C, Bresler L, Bigard MA. Impact of azathioprine and tumour necrosis factor antagonists on the need for surgery in newly diagnosed Crohn's disease. Gut. 2011 Jul;60(7):930-6. doi: 10.1136/gut.2010.227884. Epub 2011 Jan 12.

    PMID: 21228429BACKGROUND
  • Jenkinson PW, Plevris N, Siakavellas S, Lyons M, Arnott ID, Wilson D, Watson AJM, Jones GR, Lees CW. Temporal Trends in Surgical Resection Rates and Biologic Prescribing in Crohn's Disease: A Population-based Cohort Study. J Crohns Colitis. 2020 Sep 16;14(9):1241-1247. doi: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjaa044.

    PMID: 32840295BACKGROUND
  • Ramadas AV, Gunesh S, Thomas GA, Williams GT, Hawthorne AB. Natural history of Crohn's disease in a population-based cohort from Cardiff (1986-2003): a study of changes in medical treatment and surgical resection rates. Gut. 2010 Sep;59(9):1200-6. doi: 10.1136/gut.2009.202101. Epub 2010 Jul 21.

    PMID: 20650924BACKGROUND
  • Kugathasan S, Denson LA, Walters TD, Kim MO, Marigorta UM, Schirmer M, Mondal K, Liu C, Griffiths A, Noe JD, Crandall WV, Snapper S, Rabizadeh S, Rosh JR, Shapiro JM, Guthery S, Mack DR, Kellermayer R, Kappelman MD, Steiner S, Moulton DE, Keljo D, Cohen S, Oliva-Hemker M, Heyman MB, Otley AR, Baker SS, Evans JS, Kirschner BS, Patel AS, Ziring D, Trapnell BC, Sylvester FA, Stephens MC, Baldassano RN, Markowitz JF, Cho J, Xavier RJ, Huttenhower C, Aronow BJ, Gibson G, Hyams JS, Dubinsky MC. Prediction of complicated disease course for children newly diagnosed with Crohn's disease: a multicentre inception cohort study. Lancet. 2017 Apr 29;389(10080):1710-1718. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30317-3. Epub 2017 Mar 2.

    PMID: 28259484BACKGROUND
  • Forcione DG, Rosen MJ, Kisiel JB, Sands BE. Anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody (ASCA) positivity is associated with increased risk for early surgery in Crohn's disease. Gut. 2004 Aug;53(8):1117-22. doi: 10.1136/gut.2003.030734.

    PMID: 15247177BACKGROUND
  • Smids C, Horjus Talabur Horje CS, Nierkens S, Drylewicz J, Groenen MJM, Wahab PJ, van Lochem EG. Candidate Serum Markers in Early Crohn's Disease: Predictors of Disease Course. J Crohns Colitis. 2017 Sep 1;11(9):1090-1100. doi: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjx049.

    PMID: 28369318BACKGROUND
  • Stidham RW, Takenaka K. Artificial Intelligence for Disease Assessment in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: How Will it Change Our Practice? Gastroenterology. 2022 Apr;162(5):1493-1506. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2021.12.238. Epub 2022 Jan 4.

    PMID: 34995537BACKGROUND
  • Watson DS, Krutzinna J, Bruce IN, Griffiths CE, McInnes IB, Barnes MR, Floridi L. Clinical applications of machine learning algorithms: beyond the black box. BMJ. 2019 Mar 12;364:l886. doi: 10.1136/bmj.l886. No abstract available.

    PMID: 30862612BACKGROUND

MeSH Terms

Conditions

Crohn Disease

Interventions

Immunosuppressive AgentsBiological Products

Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Inflammatory Bowel DiseasesGastroenteritisGastrointestinal DiseasesDigestive System DiseasesIntestinal Diseases

Intervention Hierarchy (Ancestors)

Immunologic FactorsPhysiological Effects of DrugsPharmacologic ActionsChemical Actions and UsesComplex Mixtures

Study Design

Study Type
observational
Observational Model
COHORT
Time Perspective
RETROSPECTIVE
Sponsor Type
OTHER
Responsible Party
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
PI Title
Doctor

Study Record Dates

First Submitted

June 8, 2024

First Posted

June 13, 2024

Study Start

January 1, 2005

Primary Completion

December 31, 2022

Study Completion

December 1, 2023

Last Updated

June 13, 2024

Record last verified: 2024-06