Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Surgery in Newly-diagnosed Crohn's Disease: a Retrospective Cohort Study
1 other identifier
observational
490
0 countries
N/A
Brief Summary
A majority of patients with Crohn's disease undergo surgery during the disease course. We aimed to develop an easily available nomogram to predict the risk of surgery at diagnosis.
Trial Health
Trial Health Score
Automated assessment based on enrollment pace, timeline, and geographic reach
participants targeted
Target at P75+ for all trials
Started Jan 2005
Longer than P75 for all trials
Health score is calculated from publicly available data and should be used for screening purposes only.
Trial Relationships
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Study Timeline
Key milestones and dates
Study Start
First participant enrolled
January 1, 2005
CompletedPrimary Completion
Last participant's last visit for primary outcome
December 31, 2022
CompletedStudy Completion
Last participant's last visit for all outcomes
December 1, 2023
CompletedFirst Submitted
Initial submission to the registry
June 8, 2024
CompletedFirst Posted
Study publicly available on registry
June 13, 2024
CompletedJune 13, 2024
June 1, 2024
18 years
June 8, 2024
June 12, 2024
Conditions
Keywords
Outcome Measures
Primary Outcomes (1)
Requirement of surgery
need for bowel resection at any time
Any time during the follow-up (up to Dec 31, 2022)
Interventions
No intervention was performed in this retrospective cohort study.
Eligibility Criteria
patients newly diagnosed with Crohn's disease
You may qualify if:
- The diagnosis of CD was finally confirmed according to diagnostic criteria, including clinical manifestations and ileocolonoscopic, histopathologic, and radiologic evidence
- Laboratory data of complete blood count and routine blood biochemical examination were available within one week before the diagnostic ileocolonoscopy
You may not qualify if:
- The time of diagnosis was unclear
- They underwent bowel resection within three months after diagnosis, which reflected an early complicated disease
- They suffered from severe infection around the laboratory test
Contact the study team to confirm eligibility.
Sponsors & Collaborators
Related Publications (16)
Roda G, Chien Ng S, Kotze PG, Argollo M, Panaccione R, Spinelli A, Kaser A, Peyrin-Biroulet L, Danese S. Crohn's disease. Nat Rev Dis Primers. 2020 Apr 2;6(1):22. doi: 10.1038/s41572-020-0156-2.
PMID: 32242028BACKGROUNDSatsangi J, Silverberg MS, Vermeire S, Colombel JF. The Montreal classification of inflammatory bowel disease: controversies, consensus, and implications. Gut. 2006 Jun;55(6):749-53. doi: 10.1136/gut.2005.082909.
PMID: 16698746BACKGROUNDThia KT, Sandborn WJ, Harmsen WS, Zinsmeister AR, Loftus EV Jr. Risk factors associated with progression to intestinal complications of Crohn's disease in a population-based cohort. Gastroenterology. 2010 Oct;139(4):1147-55. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2010.06.070. Epub 2010 Jul 14.
PMID: 20637205BACKGROUNDTarrant KM, Barclay ML, Frampton CM, Gearry RB. Perianal disease predicts changes in Crohn's disease phenotype-results of a population-based study of inflammatory bowel disease phenotype. Am J Gastroenterol. 2008 Dec;103(12):3082-93. doi: 10.1111/j.1572-0241.2008.02212.x.
PMID: 19086959BACKGROUNDLouis E, Collard A, Oger AF, Degroote E, Aboul Nasr El Yafi FA, Belaiche J. Behaviour of Crohn's disease according to the Vienna classification: changing pattern over the course of the disease. Gut. 2001 Dec;49(6):777-82. doi: 10.1136/gut.49.6.777.
PMID: 11709511BACKGROUNDPeyrin-Biroulet L, Loftus EV Jr, Colombel JF, Sandborn WJ. The natural history of adult Crohn's disease in population-based cohorts. Am J Gastroenterol. 2010 Feb;105(2):289-97. doi: 10.1038/ajg.2009.579. Epub 2009 Oct 27.
PMID: 19861953BACKGROUNDBemelman WA, Warusavitarne J, Sampietro GM, Serclova Z, Zmora O, Luglio G, de Buck van Overstraeten A, Burke JP, Buskens CJ, Colombo F, Dias JA, Eliakim R, Elosua T, Gecim IE, Kolacek S, Kierkus J, Kolho KL, Lefevre JH, Millan M, Panis Y, Pinkney T, Russell RK, Shwaartz C, Vaizey C, Yassin N, D'Hoore A. ECCO-ESCP Consensus on Surgery for Crohn's Disease. J Crohns Colitis. 2018 Jan 5;12(1):1-16. doi: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjx061. No abstract available.
PMID: 28498901BACKGROUNDCushing K, Higgins PDR. Management of Crohn Disease: A Review. JAMA. 2021 Jan 5;325(1):69-80. doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.18936.
PMID: 33399844BACKGROUNDPeyrin-Biroulet L, Oussalah A, Williet N, Pillot C, Bresler L, Bigard MA. Impact of azathioprine and tumour necrosis factor antagonists on the need for surgery in newly diagnosed Crohn's disease. Gut. 2011 Jul;60(7):930-6. doi: 10.1136/gut.2010.227884. Epub 2011 Jan 12.
PMID: 21228429BACKGROUNDJenkinson PW, Plevris N, Siakavellas S, Lyons M, Arnott ID, Wilson D, Watson AJM, Jones GR, Lees CW. Temporal Trends in Surgical Resection Rates and Biologic Prescribing in Crohn's Disease: A Population-based Cohort Study. J Crohns Colitis. 2020 Sep 16;14(9):1241-1247. doi: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjaa044.
PMID: 32840295BACKGROUNDRamadas AV, Gunesh S, Thomas GA, Williams GT, Hawthorne AB. Natural history of Crohn's disease in a population-based cohort from Cardiff (1986-2003): a study of changes in medical treatment and surgical resection rates. Gut. 2010 Sep;59(9):1200-6. doi: 10.1136/gut.2009.202101. Epub 2010 Jul 21.
PMID: 20650924BACKGROUNDKugathasan S, Denson LA, Walters TD, Kim MO, Marigorta UM, Schirmer M, Mondal K, Liu C, Griffiths A, Noe JD, Crandall WV, Snapper S, Rabizadeh S, Rosh JR, Shapiro JM, Guthery S, Mack DR, Kellermayer R, Kappelman MD, Steiner S, Moulton DE, Keljo D, Cohen S, Oliva-Hemker M, Heyman MB, Otley AR, Baker SS, Evans JS, Kirschner BS, Patel AS, Ziring D, Trapnell BC, Sylvester FA, Stephens MC, Baldassano RN, Markowitz JF, Cho J, Xavier RJ, Huttenhower C, Aronow BJ, Gibson G, Hyams JS, Dubinsky MC. Prediction of complicated disease course for children newly diagnosed with Crohn's disease: a multicentre inception cohort study. Lancet. 2017 Apr 29;389(10080):1710-1718. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30317-3. Epub 2017 Mar 2.
PMID: 28259484BACKGROUNDForcione DG, Rosen MJ, Kisiel JB, Sands BE. Anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody (ASCA) positivity is associated with increased risk for early surgery in Crohn's disease. Gut. 2004 Aug;53(8):1117-22. doi: 10.1136/gut.2003.030734.
PMID: 15247177BACKGROUNDSmids C, Horjus Talabur Horje CS, Nierkens S, Drylewicz J, Groenen MJM, Wahab PJ, van Lochem EG. Candidate Serum Markers in Early Crohn's Disease: Predictors of Disease Course. J Crohns Colitis. 2017 Sep 1;11(9):1090-1100. doi: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjx049.
PMID: 28369318BACKGROUNDStidham RW, Takenaka K. Artificial Intelligence for Disease Assessment in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: How Will it Change Our Practice? Gastroenterology. 2022 Apr;162(5):1493-1506. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2021.12.238. Epub 2022 Jan 4.
PMID: 34995537BACKGROUNDWatson DS, Krutzinna J, Bruce IN, Griffiths CE, McInnes IB, Barnes MR, Floridi L. Clinical applications of machine learning algorithms: beyond the black box. BMJ. 2019 Mar 12;364:l886. doi: 10.1136/bmj.l886. No abstract available.
PMID: 30862612BACKGROUND
MeSH Terms
Conditions
Interventions
Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)
Intervention Hierarchy (Ancestors)
Study Design
- Study Type
- observational
- Observational Model
- COHORT
- Time Perspective
- RETROSPECTIVE
- Sponsor Type
- OTHER
- Responsible Party
- PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
- PI Title
- Doctor
Study Record Dates
First Submitted
June 8, 2024
First Posted
June 13, 2024
Study Start
January 1, 2005
Primary Completion
December 31, 2022
Study Completion
December 1, 2023
Last Updated
June 13, 2024
Record last verified: 2024-06