Forecasting ED Overcrowding With Statistical Methods: A Prospective Validation Study
1 other identifier
observational
160,000
0 countries
N/A
Brief Summary
The aim of this study is to prospectively validate statistical forecasting tools that have been widely used retrospectively in forecasting ED overcrowding
Trial Health
Trial Health Score
Automated assessment based on enrollment pace, timeline, and geographic reach
participants targeted
Target at P75+ for all trials
Started Jan 2022
Shorter than P25 for all trials
Health score is calculated from publicly available data and should be used for screening purposes only.
Trial Relationships
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Study Timeline
Key milestones and dates
First Submitted
Initial submission to the registry
December 13, 2021
CompletedFirst Posted
Study publicly available on registry
December 30, 2021
CompletedStudy Start
First participant enrolled
January 1, 2022
CompletedPrimary Completion
Last participant's last visit for primary outcome
February 28, 2022
CompletedStudy Completion
Last participant's last visit for all outcomes
December 31, 2022
CompletedJanuary 10, 2022
January 1, 2022
2 months
December 13, 2021
January 6, 2022
Conditions
Keywords
Outcome Measures
Primary Outcomes (1)
Next day overcrowding
A day is defined as overcrowded if daily peak occupancy exceeds 80 patients, and severely overcrowded if daily peak occupancy exceeds 100 patients.
24 hours
Secondary Outcomes (4)
Number of hourly arrivals in the ED 24 hours ahead
24 hour
Hourly occupancy in the ED 24 hours ahead
24 hour
Number of daily arrivals in the ED 7 days ahead
24 hour
Daily peak occupancy in the ED 7 days ahead
24 hours
Interventions
In this study, no interventions are performed.
Eligibility Criteria
Tampere University Hospital is an academic hospital located in Tampere, Finland. It serves a population of 535,000 in the Pirkanmaa Hospital District and, as a tertiary hospital, an additional population of 365,700 and provides level 1 trauma centre capabilities.
You may qualify if:
- All patients presenting in the Emergency Department
Contact the study team to confirm eligibility.
Sponsors & Collaborators
Related Publications (2)
Gul M, Celik E. An exhaustive review and analysis on applications of statistical forecasting in hospital emergency departments. Health Syst (Basingstoke). 2018 Nov 19;9(4):263-284. doi: 10.1080/20476965.2018.1547348.
PMID: 33354320BACKGROUNDRichardson DB. Increase in patient mortality at 10 days associated with emergency department overcrowding. Med J Aust. 2006 Mar 6;184(5):213-6. doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.2006.tb00204.x.
PMID: 16515430BACKGROUND
MeSH Terms
Conditions
Condition Hierarchy (Ancestors)
Central Study Contacts
Study Design
- Study Type
- observational
- Observational Model
- COHORT
- Time Perspective
- PROSPECTIVE
- Target Duration
- 1 Day
- Sponsor Type
- OTHER
- Responsible Party
- SPONSOR
Study Record Dates
First Submitted
December 13, 2021
First Posted
December 30, 2021
Study Start
January 1, 2022
Primary Completion
February 28, 2022
Study Completion
December 31, 2022
Last Updated
January 10, 2022
Record last verified: 2022-01
Data Sharing
- IPD Sharing
- Will not share